In December,the Federal Reserve of the United States signaled a marked shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance during its eagerly anticipated FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.This shift seems to indicate that the era of interest rate hikes may have reached its conclusion,with the prospect of rate cuts coming into clearer focus.Following this news,Treasury yields have seen a steady decline,the U.S.dollar has weakened,and the Chinese yuan might be entering a phase of appreciation.

During this most recent meeting,the Fed opted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%.This decision marked the third consecutive pause in the rate hike cycle since the last increase in July.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly stated that rates are now "at or near the peak of this tightening cycle," effectively confirming that the period of increasing rates is over.

Buoyed by these dovish expectations,U.S.stock markets have fully recovered from earlier losses,with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up for seven consecutive weeks,reaching new all-time highs.Meanwhile,the yield on the ten-year Treasury note has dropped significantly,decreasing from around 5% in mid-October to approximately 3.9%.

Market participants are now contemplating the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2024.The dot plot released by Fed officials suggests they anticipate three cuts next year,totaling 75 basis points (bps).However,many investors are betting on a more aggressive scenario,expecting cuts to reach as much as 150 bps,with some forecasts indicating that the first reduction could occur as early as March or May 2024.The question remains whether this market enthusiasm could be perceived as jumping the gun.

Addressing inflation has been the primary rationale behind the Federal Reserve's recent tightening measures.With U.S.inflation cooling down to around 3%,the justification for continued rate hikes has become tenuous.Data from the Department of Labor indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in November,a stark decline from the peak of 9.1% seen during this cycle.Core CPI,excluding food and energy prices,increased by 4% year-on-year,down 2.6 percentage points from its cycle high.

The Fed's official statement acknowledged,"Inflation has moderated over the past year." Officials predict a Consumer Expenditure (PCE) inflation rate of 2.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023,which is a 0.5 percentage point downgrade from prior estimates made in September,while forecasting a further decrease to 2.4% by the end of 2024.

With inflation continuously declining,even if the Fed holds steady on interest rates,the real interest rates after adjusting for inflation are effectively rising.This trend diminishes the necessity for further increases in nominal rates.

The previous two pauses in rate hikes were primarily analytical,facilitating observations on how various sectors of the economy respond to existing interest rate levels.The current meeting marks a considerable departure,as the Fed has begun issuing clear signals regarding prospective rate cuts.Powell affirmed that the committee had discussions centered around the timing of potential rate decreases.

Throughout 2023,anticipation regarding the Fed's maneuvers has been characterized by a tendency for market actors to "jump the gun." The Fed appeared to be continuously pulling the market’s expectations back,but this time they seem to be aligning with these expectations.The U.S.economy remains fairly solid,prompting questions about why the Fed adopted such a distinct dovish tone following the November meeting.What catalyzed this apparent shift?

According to analysts at China International Capital Corporation (CICC),while the economic fundamentals may not call for a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024,non-fundamental factors could drive the Fed to act sooner than anticipated.Firstly,preemptive rate cuts could help avert potential risks associated with an overly restrictive policy.Secondly,addressing liquidity tightening effects arising from balance sheet reduction could play a role in decision-making.

Given the inherent lag of monetary policy effects on the real economy,it is crucial for the Fed to adopt a forward-looking approach.Waiting until economic indicators are evidently deteriorating to implement changes may be counterproductive.For example,in 2021,the Fed faced criticism for not raising rates promptly when inflation began emerging,leading them to pursue more aggressive tightening measures later on to combat those inflationary pressures.

Now,with the Federal Reserve once again approaching a pivotal juncture,its capacity to exhibit foresight will undoubtedly be tested.With inflation clearly receding,there is little reason for the Fed to impose excessively high rates on the economy.Engaging in preemptive rate cuts could serve as a safeguard against potential economic downturns.

The substantial rise in Treasury yields throughout October underscored the influence of heightened rates,suggesting that some external factors can significantly disrupt the Treasury market,which in turn could pose risks to overall financial stability.

From the perspective of the Democratic Party,ensuring a stable economic outlook for 2024 is paramount for their chances of re-election.While the current U.S.economy is faring relatively well,there is no assurance that it will sustain its performance under elevated interest rates through the upcoming election cycle.Proactively administering a few rounds of "preventative rate cuts" could decisively benefit the Democrats.For the Federal Reserve,maintaining its autonomy remains essential.If the Fed wishes to mitigate external scrutiny,it would be prudent to initiate key policy adjustments in the first half of 2024.

Regardless of the motives behind the Fed's shifting stance,the potential for rate cuts is now on the horizon,likely ushering in a new global easing cycle.The decline in interest rates generally tends to favor equity assets,and external pressures faced by emerging markets may see a reversal.Consequently,the depreciative pressures on the renminbi have notably eased,with the offshore renminbi trading at around 7.13 against the U.S.dollar.